Fuel for Thought

     During the government caused energy shortages of the
1970s someone in government had a bright idea.  Why not
prohibit auto racing to save fuel?  Certainly driving in circles
isn't a very important use of fuel.

     The idea died quickly when someone else figured out that
it takes more fuel to fly a football team across the country than
the racers use at an auto race.  This isn't even half the answer to
what impact prohibiting racing would have on fuel consumption. 
To answer that question we must consider all of the "unseen"
consequences of a ban on racing.

     For starters large crowds at races, football games, etc.
travel to the events.  Travel consumes fuel.  How much?  Let's
try some very rough estimates to calculate a ball park figure.

     In a 500-mile race with 40 drivers, the cars will travel
20,000 miles.  At one mile per gallon that would be 20,000
gallons.  Race cars get more than one mile per gallon.  If they
didn't, there would be many more pit stops.

     If 100,000 fans each use a gallon of fuel traveling for an
event, it would add up to 100,000 gallons.  They may use a
gallon of fuel while trying to find a parking space and crawling
through the traffic jams before and after the event.  For events
such as the Indy 500 and the Super bowl, spectators consume
vast amounts of fuel traveling from afar.

     It is certain that the spectators use far more fuel than do
the participants.  A major event may consume millions of
gallons.  Does this mean that canceling large crowd events;
races, ball games, concerts, etc., would be a great way to save
fuel?  Before leaping to this conclusion we should ferret out a
bit more of the unseen.

     People who don't go to events do something else.  That
something else could be laying in the backyard.  In most cases it
won't be.  How much fuel would be consumed doing something
else?  Something else could be a trip to the beach, the mall, a
movie, bowling alley, etc.

     Will those other uses of fuel equal or exceed the fuel
consumption of the event?  I don't know.  Neither does anyone
else.  Even if the event was canceled no one could ever figure
out how much fuel the would be spectators used for other
purposes.

     We still haven't reached the depths of the unknowable. 
Many major events are televised.  Millions watch.  Watching
television doesn't use much fuel.  If the viewers weren't
watching television, How much fuel might they consume doing
something else?  It is a safe bet that many of them would
consume fuel doing something.

     No central planner can even know the impact canceling
events would have on net fuel consumption.  Even after the fact
it would be impossible to figure out whether the cancellation
caused fuel consumption to go up or down.

     To figure out the consequences of any action that
interferes with human choices, planners must be able to trace all
of the choices and actions that would have occurred without the
interference.  Also, they must trace all of the choices and actions
that flow from the interference.

     To do this the planer must accurately predict the future
choices and actions of millions of people.  This includes the
entire chain of choices and actions that will run forever into the
future.  Even for something as seeming simple as canceling a
race, no planner is capable of even coming close to guessing
what will happen.

     No central planner of any kind can come close to
estimating the impact his plan will have on the choices and
actions of millions and billions of people.  Central planners
indulge in the pretense of knowledge.  Unavoidable ignorance
guarantees the plans will fail to archive the results they promise.

     Planners who can't even predict how canceling a race will
affect fuel consumption, don't have a chance to plan the entire
economy and get it right.  We should call "central planners" by
their real name, central guessers.

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Copyright 2012
Albert D. McCallum
18440 29-1/2 Mile Road
Springport, Michigan 49284