How Bleak Is the Future?

     Concern about the future isn't new.  Concern about the
future isn't a bad thing.  Those who aren't concerned have no
reason to act to build a better future.  If we don't act now to
build a better future, the future will indeed be bleak.

     When a hungry person sits down at the table, it is a bit
late to start planting wheat.  When you head for the store it is
also a little late to start thinking about opening a mine to dig ore
to make an auto.

     Meeting our future needs requires beginning production
long in advance.  Future production depends on creating and
sustaining an environment that allows production.

     In my younger days worry about the future of the USA
revolved around nuclear bombs, the Soviet Union, and war.  A
few far sighted individuals were concerned about loss of liberty,
declining production, and economic collapse.  These individuals
were taken about as seriously as those who worried about cold
during last summer's heat wave.

     Those who worried about the cold were right.  It came. 
Those who during the 1950s worried about economic collapse of
the then infant welfare state have now found a large following. 
Yet, millions still ridicule that concern.

     One of the headlines today was that New York Times
resident ignoramus, Paul Krugman, claimed that all we need to
revive our dying economy is two more years of government
spending.  Bad old ideas die hard.

     Warnings about the future lose credibility when the
disaster doesn't soon strike.  Productivity in the US continued to
grow for half a century after the 1950s faded into history.  Most
concluded that concern about economic collapse was nothing
more than Chicken Little worrying.  Most people laughed at the
warnings about the housing bubble, until the bubble burst in
their faces.

     The US survived the depression of the 1930s, economic
stagnation of the 1970s, and numerous recessions in between. 
Why should the current economic collapse be any different? 
Just because an individual survives three bouts of pneumonia
doesn't mean he will survive the fourth.  He is likely to be older,
weaker, and less able to survive.

     The same is true of our economy.  Our economy isn't a
thing.  It is the product of hard working, skilled people planning
for the future, and having the freedom to execute the plans. 
This is where today is far different from the 1930s, 1950s, 1970s
or any other time in  the history of the USA.

     Hard work is falling out of style.  Government interferes
with planning and production in ways that were only feared in
the 1950s.  The official unemployment rate is under 8 percent
only because government doesn't count the millions who want
jobs but have given up looking.

     The work force, as counted by government, has shrunk
by millions.  No matter how government twists the numbers
those missing workers don't have jobs.  A private statistician
included the "discouraged workers" as unemployed.  He
calculated the real unemployment rate as 23 percent.

     After the economic disaster of the 1930s, government
backed off a bit.  The private sector rebuilt production.  It could
happen again.  The question we face today is, Do the voters of
our welfare-warfare state have the will to force government to
back off?

     The big difference between now and 1945 is that in 1945
the wave of unsustainable entitlement spending we face today
was still far in the future.  It hadn't even been fully set in
motion.

     Today informed thinking people, even most of the
politicians, know that the status quo isn't sustainable.  Informed
people are divided into two groups.  Some believe we can cut
spending and roll back government intrusions on liberty and
voluntary cooperation enough to avoid disaster.

     The rest are preparing for the disaster they believe is
inevitable.  Unless we find a way to drastically shrink
government and its runaway spending, the pessimists will win, if
you can call that winning.  Even they don't want the prize.

aldmccallum@gmail.com
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Copyright 2013
Albert D. McCallum