Column
for week of December 2, 2013
THOUGHTS,
RAMBLINGS and OBSERVATIONS
by
Albert
D. McCallum
How
Warm Is It?
The man
made global warming enthusiasts live in difficult times. Real
temperatures refuse to cooperate with the predictions made with
computer models. This shouldn't surprise anyone. Computer models
are, and always will be, useless for proving any theory.
A
computer models tells the programmer exactly what he tells it to
tell. The basic rule is still “Garbage in, garbage out.”
Program the computer to find that your birthday is on Christmas one
year and the Fourth of July the next. That is the answer it will
give you every time.
Program
the computer to predict temperatures based on increased carbon
dioxide causing global warming. The computer will dutifully predict
increased temperatures based on the size of the increase in carbon
dioxide. Of course, the computer has no more control over real
temperatures than it does over the date of your birthday.
Some of
the attempts to explain why temperatures aren't obeying the
predictions are humorous. One claim is that the world is rapidly
warming. The problem is that it is warming only in those places
where there are no thermometers. Does this mean we can prevent
global warming by putting thermometers everywhere?
We are
at the peak of the 11 year sunspot cycle. To the surprise of some,
sunspot activity is the lowest it has been at the peak of a cycle in
one hundred years.
This
isn't a surprise to everyone. Five years or so ago I read a
prediction that we were headed into a 30 years period of low sunspot
activity. The scientist who made the prediction had studied hundreds
of years of sunspot data. He had also discovered that world
temperatures follow the sunspots. Lower sunspot activity is
accompanied by lower temperatures. Based on this he also predicted
that the 30 years of low sunspot activity would be cooler.
None of
this is enough to prove that sunspots control the temperature of the
world. The odds are great that sunspots are more likely to influence
temperatures than are computer models. The fact that the computer
models have been consistently and substantially wrong gives more
reasons to put your money on the sunspots.
The
so-called scientists who scream about global warming seem to be part
of the same crowd that warned that we were experiencing soon to be
disastrous global cooling during the 1970s. Having twice tripped on
their own predictions, they now prefer to warn about climate change.
It is
all but certain they are riding a winner this time. The one thing
certain about climate is that it has endlessly changed for so long as
we have any records of climate. Cores from glaciers and from ocean
sediments show thousands of years of change. What are the chances
that the climate will suddenly stop changing?
Past
changes have gone back and forth, hot and cold, wet and dry. Today's
climate change mongers want us to believe that the changes will all
be endlessly for the worse. How would they scare anyone into
providing endless grants for research by admitting that climate
change might be a good thing? The even bigger scare game is to
frighten people into accepting draconian government control of their
lives in the name of saving us from the climate change bogeyman.
I don't
have space to cover the details of temperature change for the 150
years since temperatures began recovering from the Little Ice Age.
Check the record and you will find three periods of warming, all
followed by cooling. Also, there is no correlation between warming
and increased carbon dioxide. Most of the warming occurred before
there was a major increase in carbon dioxide.
We
should look to real climate scientists, not to politicians and
talking heads with agendas, for the truth about climate. The people
who have so far been nothing but wrong aren't good candidates to be
our guides to the future. For information on climate, checkout
climatedepot.com
aldmccallum@gmail.com
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Copyright 2013
Albert D. McCallum
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