What Is a Good Choice for Iraq?

Column for week of July 7, 2014

     We endlessly make choices.  Choosing is so common
individuals choose without even being conscious of the fact they
are choosing.  When one choice is obviously better than another
it is easy to choose.  The close calls are the ones we ponder the
most.  In such difficult choices it may be just as well to flip a
coin.  There is little chance prolonged deliberation will yield
better results.

     We don't have a guarantee that one of the available
choices will be a good one.  Perhaps the best option will only be
the lesser of two evils.  Lamenting the lack of a desirable option
accomplishes nothing.  Choosing something that isn't on the
menu doesn't work.

     Suppose an individual has two options to reach his
destination.  He can walk or ride.  It would be pointless for him
to say "I reject both options,  I'll flap my arms and fly."  That
choice would be a choice not to go to the destination.

     The same principles that apply to individuals' private
choices also apply to choices made by individuals in
government.  One big difference is that government choices are
likely to affect many more people.

     After the US took down the government of Iraq it chose
to create a stable democracy in Iraq.  A quick check of the menu
would have revealed that stable democracy wasn't an available
entrée.

     Many insist that should be the universal entrée to be
served to every nation.  They believe that with democracy on
every table peace, prosperity and tranquility will be universal.

     Democracy can be served only in the right kind of
dinning room.  The Middle East and North Africa have a
shortage of dinning rooms hospitable to democracy.  For
democracy to grow in any region the people must be basically
peaceful.  They must be inclined to work together and peaceably
deal with their differences.

     The harsh environment of the Middle East has produced
harsh, violent people.  Their instincts are to resolve
disagreements with force and violence.  In this environment
there are only two options on the government menu.

     One dish is thugacracy where a thuggish strongman rules
with force, violence and fear.  For a time such a government
may keep a frightened population somewhat peaceful.  The other
option is endless strife and civil war until a thug takes over.

     US intervention in the Middle East was doomed from the
start.  Toppling strongmen, such as Saddam Hussein, is easy
when you have the bomb and boots.  Toppling the strongman
doesn't add any new items to the menu.

     For a time the US took over the role of strongman.  The
US sheltered government in Iraq didn't achieve the level of
strongman before the US left.  And, it failed to make the jump
after the US left.  This is not surprising.  Rather than grooming
the Iraq government to be a thugacracy, the US ordered stable
democracy which wasn't on the menu, and still isn't.

     In the absence of a thugacracy Iraqis dined on the only
other dish available, strife and civil war.  The US going back
into Iraq won't change the menu.  It will only allow the US to
play strongman for a day until it leaves again.  Unless the US
grooms a new thug to take over, the strife will resume after the
US leaves again.

     Ordering a stable democracy in the Iraq dinning room is
as futile as flapping your arms and trying to fly.  It isn't on the
menu, and won't be until there is a major change in the people
of Iraq.  Only the people of Iraq can change the menu.  Outside
interference can only disrupt.

     Neither choice available for Iraq will be particularly
pleasant for Iraqis.  The most pleasant option for the US is to
stay out of the mess it helped create.  It will be futile, and
painful, for the US to continue insisting on serving a dish that
isn't on the Iraq menu.

aldmccallum@gmail.com
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Copyright 2014
Albert D. McCallum