Thursday, April 3, 2014

Who Is a Scientist?

Column for week of March 31, 2014

     Global warming fanatics often trot out statistics about
how many scientists agree that we are experiencing global
warming caused by man made greenhouse gases.  They also
claim that "the science is settled."  There is no room for further
debate about global warming.  Some go so far as demanding
prison for those who deny the existence of man made global
warming.

     One question this raises is, What is a scientist?  I am
reminded of an old riddle.  If you call a tail a leg, How many
legs does a dog have?   Answer: four.  Calling a tail a leg
doesn't make it a leg.

     Calling someone a scientist doesn't make them a scientist. 
Degrees in science don't make one a scientist either.  A real
scientist is one who uses the scientific method to understand
causes and effects in the universe.

     Isaac Newton was a scientist.  He collected data about
falling objects and their velocity.  He worked out a theory about
how falling objects accelerated.  Then he devised mathematical
formulas that he believed could predict the velocity of falling
objects based on how long they had been falling.

     This is the scientific method.  Collect data and devise
theories and formulas that appear to explain how one event
causes another.  The real test of the theory is, Does it
consistently predict future events?  Newton's theory of gravity
wasn't proven until it accurately predicted the velocity of falling
objects every time.  Even one failure would have proven the
theory to be flawed.

     Scientists who study human impact on world
temperatures face an awesome task.  First they must collect data
about past temperatures around the world.  They must collect
thousands of years of data.  Based on the data now collected we
know that world temperatures have been changing for thousands
of years.  The 120 or so years of data from thermometer
readings around the world can't possibly be enough to develop a
valid theory of how natural forces affect temperatures.

     The next step is to devise a theory that explains how
observed forces change world temperatures.  The test of that
theory will be, Does it accurately predict future world
temperatures?

     For the most part those who claim to know that
greenhouse gases are warming the world have ignored the
scientific method.  No matter what they call themselves, their
conclusions aren't based on the scientific method.

     Temperatures have been increasing since about 1860. 
For hundreds of years before that the world was in the Little Ice
Age.  Before that the medieval warm period peaked around
1100.  No one is in a position to determine the effect greenhouse
gases have on temperature until they are able to distinguish that
effect from natural temperature changes.

     No one is claiming that the significant warming from
1910 or so to the 1940s was caused by greenhouse gases.  Why
did the world cool for 30 or more years after 1940 while carbon
dioxide emissions soared?  Why have world temperatures been
stable to falling for the past 15 years while carbon dioxide
emissions continue to soar?  Why have observed temperatures
been substantially lower than temperatures predicted by
computers programed in accordance with the theory that carbon
dioxide causes substantial warming?

     Real scientists using the scientific method would ask and
answer these and other questions before daring to claim that the
science of global warming is settled.  Perhaps carbon dioxide is
causing some warming.  So far nothing in the temperature data
is inconsistent with the recent warming being a natural recovery
from the Little Ice Age.

     Scientists who study solar activity and its impact on
temperatures believe we are in the beginning of a 40-year cold
period that might plunge world temperatures back to the level of
1800.  This seems a bit extreme.  Let's hope they are at least a
little wrong.  Whatever, it is absurd to claim the science of
global warming is settled.  It is settled only in the minds of
politicians and hucksters.

aldmccallum@gmail.com
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Copyright 2014
Albert D. McCallum

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